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CHAPTER THREE - ANALYZING THE ISSUES Population Estimates In 2000, the Comprehensive Plan of the City of Sunny Isles Beach estimated the population at 15,786 of permanent residents by 2004. However, the City has now estimated its 2004 population at 16,580. This change is due to the large amount of redevelopment and infill efforts. The Comprehensive Plan projects the population at 17,701 in 2009. Due to differing population numbers, there is a need to revise the projections in the Comprehensive Plan. Significant disparities can be attributed to different population forecast methods being used, population base of preceding years and current trends of population growth (significantly higher now than in the 1980s and 1990s for the City of Sunny Isles Beach). Over 4,400 new units are either proposed or under construction along Collins Avenue. When analyzing the amount of future units and the number of recent projects that have already been constructed, it is apparent that the population projections all underestimate the intensity of growth within Sunny Isles Beach. The population projection derived from projects under construction and projects currently planned and/or approved indicate the City will gain 7,293 persons over the next three years. This assumes that the total projected population will be approximately 23,266 residents by 2007-08, which exceeds the 2025 City's projected population at 16,929. Although there are differences in the population estimates, Sunny Isles Beach seems to have adequate residential and hotel capacity to accommodate both existing and future needs. From 1980 to 1990, the City's actual population growth rates decreased 6.7%, as indicated in Table 3.1. Decreases in growth were not uncommon during this time period among coastal cities. This change was due to rapid western development in South Florida. By comparison, the City's population grew by 30% from 1990 to 2000. Table 3.1 below shows total growth in population represented 22% between 1980 and 2000. Table 3.1 Historical Population Changes 1980-2000 1980 1990 2000 % Change City of Sunny Isles Beach 12,564 11,772 15,315 22.0 Source: 1990 and 2000 US Census Miami-Dade County has provided twenty-five year projections for the City of Sunny Isles Beach as indicated in Table 3.2. Twenty-five year projections are also provided by Florida Housing Data in Table 3.3. The population of the City and the County projected to increase proportionally. However, compared to the 2004 data provided by the City's Planning and Zoning Department, the County's figures underestimate the City's population growth. The numbers are lower than what currently exists and what is anticipated for future growth. The City acknowledges the disparities between the methodologies and will work with the County to revise the figures. City of Sunny Isles Beach - 2005 Evaluation and Appraisal Report Rev. 9/15/2005 Page 37